State, federal and tribal biologists looked at 40 models for predicting the run, selected seven and took the average of those seven, said Kathryn Kostow of the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, chair of the committee that prepared the forecast.
A year ago, the forecast was for a mega-return of 470,000, with the actual number entering the river settling at 315,345. The 2011 forecast calls for 40,000 5-year-old chinook, which are larger and tend to return a bit earlier, and 158,400 4-year-olds. The portion head for the Columbia River upstream of Priest Rapids Dam is 22,400, while the Snake River prediction is 91,100.
Other streams contributing to this run include Wind River, Drano Lake and Klickitat River, all on the Washington side of the Columbia River Gorge. A forecast for Oregon’s Willamette River is not complete, but is expected to be in 100,000 range. A year ago, the prediction was 63,000 and the actual return about 110,000.
Individual forecasts for the three mid-Columbia tributaries, plus the Lewis, Kalama and Cowlitz rivers are not complete. Washington and Oregon fishery officials next will discuss the Columbia forecast with various sport and commercial fishing groups.
Columbia spring chinook salmon run will return to near normal for 2011
The long-awaited, most anticipated angling event of the pre-Christmas season (well, other than the first winter steelhead) is semi-official. Biologists in Oregon and Washington forecast a lower-than-average spring chinook salmon run into the upper Columbia River in 2011, but enough to offer sport and commercial fishing seasons.
Big salmon runs predicted on the Columbia
If you work the Columbia River at Vancouver for springers, or chase summer chinook in the Brewster pool, or backtroll for fall kings on the Hanford Reach, or sack sockeye on Lake Wenatchee, start getting your gear in order because you're staring down the barrel at what should be a very good year
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