Seafood Market Outlook 2011 : Seafood should expand its reach this year as the economy moves into full recovery mode. Adequate fish and shellfish supplies will be critical to seafood’s success because buyers at every level will continue their laser-like focus on prices (STN 12/27/10). Seafood species that have no supply problems will see growth this year as food service comes back and retail holds steady.
Fortunately, there are several seafood commodities that will see improved availability in 2011, a welcome relief from last year when too many seafood products were short. Those species that are still short will be lifting the heavy burden of high prices in a fragile economy.
Most of the good news for seafood supply comes for groundfish. Hard hit species are making comebacks around the world and should replenish supply lines that ran dry last year. New management schemes in some fisheries will cause bumps in the road, but not for long.
World whitefish stocks are making a comeback thanks to natural cycles of recovery and improved management regimes. Alaska pollock, Atlantic cod, hoki, and haddock are in the midst of recovery. This is good news for the whitefish business during the coming year.
At the same time, there are still problems in some important fisheries. In the North Atlantic, for example, the fishing quota for this year fell by 18% from last year, although scientists wanted a 50% drop. Further south, though, the cod quota was left unchanged.
Barents Sea cod is recovering nicely. Russia and Norway have agreed to a 16% increase in the quota for the cod stocks they share, setting the quota at 703,000 metric tons.
Off the East Coast, a new federal law is giving groundfish fishermen new chances to catch more whitefish stocks that straddle the U.S.-Canada border. Fishermen in New England, however, are still working out the kinks in their quota-share management regime. Last year, this resulted in a slower flow of fish to market at times; this year should see improvement.
The West Coast trawl fleet is also struggling to adjust to a quota share fishery, an especially difficult task considering that some 29 different groundfish stocks need managing. Several species--bocaccio, canary, cowcod, yelloweye rockfish, and petrale sole--are getting special protection and have very strict bycatch limits, which could trigger closure of the fishery.
Pacific whiting, the largest groundfish species off the West Coast, won’t have its annual catch limit set until March, after U.S. and Canadian scientists have assessed the stock. Last year saw a nice increase in abundance, but whether that carried over to this year is to be determined.
Alaska’s groundfish is the star of the whitefish business, with abundance up for major species. Buyers should see plenty of product and prices that should soften from last year.
In the Gulf of Alaska, the total allowable biological catch for all groundfish species gained 4% over last year, evidence of strong overall fish stocks. Alaska pollock gained 14%, cod 10%, sablefish 9%. A few species saw declines, including rex sole, arrowtooth floounder, Pacific Ocean perch, northern rockfish, and Pelagic shelf rockfish.
In the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands, groundfish stocks have recovered nicely after steep declines in 2009 and 2010. No stocks are suffering from overfishing. Total groundfish biomass is up 30% this year compared to 2010. Thanks to this improvement, the all important pollock catch limit has increased by 54% over last year while the Pacific cod catch limit is up 35%. It’s worth noting that these two species comprise 74% of total groundfish quotas in the region.
One fly in the ointment is the need to protect steller sea lions. The federal government says that the current way Alaska groundfish is managed will not allow the sea lion population to recover. At stake could be fishing for cod and atka mackerel in some areas of the Aleutian Islands. It may also generate conflict between Alaska and the feds over restrictions there.
Wild salmon will see strong demand this year as it did last year. It looks as though harvests will be close to last year or perhaps down only a bit in some fisheries. Strong demand will likely mean strong prices, which didn’t seem to bother the market all that much last year.
Alaska’s upcoming salmon season is shaping up nicely, though whether it can match last year is another question. Landings beat preseason projections but prices were strong anyway.
Last year, fishermen landed 168.6 million salmon, up 3.4% from 2009. The value of those salmon soared, gaining 28.1% to $533.9 million and ex-vessel prices were up 15.8%.
While the final forecast for the 2011 Alaska salmon season is still a few weeks away, some area forecasts are out and prospects are looking good. The bellwether Bristol Bay sockeye harvest could come in at 28.5 million fish this summer, just about the same as last year. Copper River, with its prized and high-priced kings and sockeyes, also looks promising. The sockeye catch could hit 1.2 million fish, a nice gain over last year’s 896,000. The chinook fishery is likely to fall back, though, to 9,200 fish from 9,500 last year, which will mean higher price. This will also be a pink year for Alaska and Southeast Alaska should see a catch of 55 million fish, well up from last year’s 24.2 million and up from the 2009 pink year’s catch of 38.1 million.
From the market’s perspective, this year could start out with another batch of high prices. Copper River will set the stage and the prized kings will be short and expensive. While the sockeyes will be more abundant, pricing will likely be strong as well as sockeyes move to slots where kings might have gone if there were enough to go around.
All in all, 2011 is stacking up to be another steller year for wild salmon from Alaska.
The outlook for wild salmon on the rest of the Pacific Coast is more problematical. While a few fisheries are looking good, two areas of uncertainty make marketers nervous.
The good news is the Columbia River where the forecast for spring chinook is looking above average for this highly prized first-of-the-season salmon. While the forecast for upriver spring chinook, at 198,400 fish, is down from the actual return last year of 315,345, officials say that a large number of big fish will be returning. For summer chinook, the forecast is 91,100 fish, well up from the actual returns of 72,346 kings last summer. The sockeye returns are set at 161,900, which is up from last year’s forecast of 125,800 but well down from the actual returns of 387,858 reds. Fish managers say this year’s forecast could be too low as well.
The commercial salmon fisheries in Puget Sound could be a mixed bag this year. Pinks are expected to be very strong while the U.S. share of Fraser River sockeyes is very uncertain.
For pinks, returns could be as good as 2009, the last pink year when the commercial catch hit 332,800 fish. Pinks have become an important food ingredient and buyers pay for them.
The Fraser River is a real conundrum for both British Columbia and Puget Sound fisheries. Nobody can figure out why the Fraser River sockeye returns failed in 2009 and before or, importantly, what caused the strong returns last year. In 2009, for example, sockeye returns were expected to hit 10 million fish but only 1 million showed up. Then last year, the forecast called for returns of about 11 million sockeyes but a whopping 29 million returned instead.
Scientists will be meeting in a few weeks to delve into the issues with fresher data, but for now last year’s strong performance probably does not indicate a turnaround for Fraser sockeye. Instead, evidence is mounting that last year was a fluke. For now, scientists are betting on a modest return of Fraser River sockeye this summer with some fishing opportunities.
The West Coast troll salmon business breathed a sigh of relief last year with the opening of major swaths of Oregon and California after three years of being closed off to fishing. This year may not turn out so well, although it is still too early to be definitive.
While Washington trollers will likely see an average abundance of chinooks, they will see fewer coho than last year. For Oregon and California, though, there is nothing but uncertainty. While the important Sacramento River returns are looking good, the Klamath River is more uncertain. Early February should see some news of one kind or another, but the Klamath River has been a roadblock to fishing in the past and could very well be so again this year.
Farmed salmon supplies will fall short of demand again this year and keep prices at high levels. Farmed production is beginning to recover but there is still a ways to go. And with the economy coming around, high prices will be more tolerable in the months ahead.
Chile’s farmed salmon industry is slowly recovering from the onslaught of infectious salmon anemia that struck in 2009. Where Chile had been producing about 400,000 tons of farmed salmon in 2008, last year production fell to as low as 100,000 tons by some accounts. This year, production should hit 150,000 tons. By 2013, the industry should be back on its feet.
In the meantime, Chilean exports of salmon to the U.S. are still down from previous years. Through October of 2010, the most recent figures available, Chile had sent only 50.2 million pounds of Atlantic salmon (all forms) to the U.S., a drop of 56.6% from 2009. With the reduced supply came higher prices, with the average price rising 25.2% to $4.72/lb.
Other suppliers have come forward to fill the supply gap left by Chile. Norway took the lead last year by sending more fresh at an attractive price. Last year, Norway sent 44.8 million pounds of fresh fillets to the U.S., more than the 38.6 million pounds of fresh fillets from Chile.
Crab will be a tough nut to crack in 2011. Supplies for the major species, including king, snow and Dungeness crab, will be short and prices high, just as they were in 2010.
Consider Bering Sea snow crab. There’s only a limited amount, although the 54.3 million pound total allowable catch is 23.5% more than last season. But that’s going to be all until April or later when Canada’s snow crab fisheries start. With this finite amount, very little in inventory, and strong demand from Japan, it’s no surprise that Alaska crabbers were heading for a nice payday. It is very nice, indeed. Alaska processors have agreed to pay crabbers an average advance price of $2.12/lb., with an eventual payout likely to hit $2.30-$2.50/lb. This compares to last season when the average advance was $1.12/lb., with a final payout at $1.30/lb.
The key to the high prices this year is strong demand from Japan, which can take advantage of its exchange rate. That’s why Japan will pay $5.50/lb. for bulk snow crab from Alaska. But that makes product for domestic use expensive with $5/lb. at wholesale probable.
How long will the U.S. market accept this? After all, there is still a recession going on. But the high prices are liable to work. First, Japan will take at least 60% of Alaska’s catch, so there won’t be much available for the U.S. Second, Canada’s fisheries may not start right away as financial problems may force processors there to balk at price demand from crabbers. The longer Canada stays on the sidelines, the longer buyers will pay high prices for Alaska crab.
And then there is West Coast Dungeness crab. Expected to be the one crab with an abundant supply and reasonable prices, the actual situation mirrors king and snow crab. Landings are down from last year and, consequently, prices are up in this fishery as well.
In Oregon, for example, landings for the first two weeks of the fishery are down by about half from last season to around 8 million pounds. Granted, fishing got started late this year, on December 12, to wait for the crab to be market-ready. Nevertheless, fishing has tailed off quickly this year. That may mean crabbing will extend into spring. Instead of Oregon reaching last year’s 23.2 million pounds, this year landings will probably end up at 13-15 million pounds.
The lower landings and strong demand from processors has meant high prices to fishermen. Although the opening price was set at $1.675/lb. in Oregon, processors skipped that and raised the price to $1.75/lb. right away and then to as much as $1.90/lb. as the shortfall in landings deepened. Processors are now paying about $2.25/lb. for Oregon crab. Some cash buyers for the live market are buying at docks for as much as $2.75/lb. This has already pushed wholesale prices for clusters to nearly $6/lb., FOB West Coast.
There will be some relief in supply in a few days. The area off Port Orford, Oregon, will open on January 15. This will help the local fleet there but also supply some--not a lot--of crab for a hungry market. At the same time, the majority of the Washington coast will open to non-tribal crabbers, and that could produce a decent volume, at least for awhile.
Shrimp is still king of the seafood mountain. Supplies are inching up once again and prices, while rising, are still a great buy. Demand for shrimp will continue to grow this year.
Last year, farmed production hit a few snags in such places as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Mexico thanks to either disease problems or unusual climate occurrences. Those are being corrected and supply from those countries should get back on track. India continues to ramp up production of white shrimp, a good seller in the U.S. Supply will be closer to demand in 2011.
Wholesale prices are probably going to continue inching up even with higher imports. The import volume will increase but gradually and in a limited way. As well, the dollar will continue to weaken against other currencies, which will push up import prices.
Lobsters could be the “best buy” of the shellfish world this year. Supply won’t be a problem and prices will be as attractive as they were last year. New marketing efforts are starting, though, with the aim to broaden the market, fire up demand, and raise prices.
Supply of American lobsters is robust everywhere on the East Coast, in both the U.S. and Canada, except for the very southern grounds off New England. This means lobsters will continue to be a good buy, even if wholesalers and fishermen suffer from the low prices.
Canada is working to fix its troubled industry by expanding export markets, particularly in China. But that’s a long-term process since Chinese consumers prefer live rather than frozen lobster. Still, as that effort matures, it could mean fewer lobsters exported to the U.S.
Scallop landings will likely jump this year but prices will not soften. Abundance is good off the East Coast and demand--domestic and world--is very strong with no change in the offing.
Last season, which ends next month, will see scallop landings of 55-56 million pounds, well above the pre-season forecast of 47.7 million pounds. This divergence between forecast and actual was a function of faulty information, the New England Fishery Management Council not realizing how the scallop fleet had increased its efficiency. Even with the higher landings, the resource remains stable and robust. That means this coming season could see similar landings, although fishing days-at-sea will fall from 35 days this season to 32 days next season.
Even with the strong landings, prices are very strong. Fishermen are getting $10-$11/lb. for U10s thanks to decent demand in the U.S. and improved demand in international markets. Japan has taken an interest in the product and Europe likes the very large meats available.
Halibut will be shorter than ever this year and likely pricier than ever to boot. The market will continue to contract, but that niche is at the high end and will accept high prices.
Fishermen and marketers are concerned about the expected 19% drop in overall catch limits for the 2011 season, especially as it relates to the health of the resource. Marketwise, though, the lower landings and subsequent higher prices should work, especially if the white tablecloth restaurant trade gains momentum as the economic recovery proceeds.
Tilapia will continue to diversify in the market this year as import volume increases and prices stay at reasonable levels. And there is no reason to suppose this won’t happen.
Through October, for example, tilapia imports hit 375.6 million pounds (all forms), a gain of 15% over last year. At the same time, the average per-pound value held steady, gaining a penny over 2009 to $1.75/lb. Not a bad achievement in a recession-plagued economy.
Retail sales of tilapia are increasing as value-adding increases. One national retail chain features tilapia in 13 different products. But food service has also taken a liking to tilapia, with one national family-style restaurant chain pushing three different tilapia menu items.
Importers continue to work on quality to eliminate any off-flavors.
Domestically, production is steady at 20-25 million pounds annually. Most of this goes to ethnic markets in the States and is mostly whole fish. This is not likely to change. Source http://www.nwdelidistribution.com
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