Columbia spring chinook salmon for 2011 run will return to near normal ; The long-awaited, most anticipated angling event of the pre-Christmas season (well, other than the first winter steelhead) is semi-official.Biologists in Oregon and Washington forecast a lower-than-average spring chinook salmon run into the upper Columbia River in 2011, but enough to offer sport and commercial fishing seasons.
And Oregon fish managers are all smiles about a Willamette River spring run potentially at or near six figures for the second consecutive year. The upper Columbia spring run is predicted to be 198,400 fish, well below last year's prediction of 470,000, which turned into an actual run of 315,000.
Chris Kern, a biologist for the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife on the Columbia River management team, said the number is below the 10-year-average run size of 219,000, but is enough to allow for sportfishing.
"What that season will be is still up in the air," he said. Both states hope to set spring seasons in February.
Last year's high prediction was predicated on averaging multiple methods used to determine potential numbers of returning adults. The results last year were "all over the map," Kern said.
This year's process was the same, but all formulas pointed to about the same result, he said.
The Willamette spring chinook run prediction isn't quite complete, Kern said, but should be by the time the Columbia River Compact (Oregon and Washington) meets Dec. 17.
Kern said the prediction will be close to 100,000 adults.
The 2010 run prediction of about 63,000 fish turned into an actual run of about 110,000, largely because of a glut, 89,000, of four-year-old fish. Spring chinook return at ages four and five years, so the 2011 run is expected to include numerous larger five-year salmon.
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